Epidemiological Requirements for Swine Flue Pandemic
- Emergence of a new virus that infects humans
- The virus acquires the ability of multiplying in humans and causing the disease.
- The virus acquires the ability of transmitting among humans and causing disease spreading.
The historical follow up of the epidemiology of swine flu shows that the first and second requirements were fulfilled 4 times: H5N1 in Hong Kong (1997), H5N1 in Hong Kong (2003), H7N7 in Holland (2003), and H5N1 in Vietnam and Thailand (2004). The H5N1 pandemics were characterized by severity and high mortality rate. It was for the first time that any of the swine flu viruses shows such wide spreading in a number of countries.
The above shows the real danger involved in any swine flu pandemic. It also shows that the world will be under threaten for years to come unless early preparations and precautions are made.